2013 Fantasy Football Overvalued

Given what I saw regarding quarterbacks and tight ends in the undervalued analysis, I expected to see the same thing with regards to running backs on the overvalued list. Wide receivers were a mixed bag in the undervalued analysis so I expected much of the same here as well.

For the most part, my expectations were accurate; here are the details of what I noticed. First of all, handcuff RBs or backup RBs with a good chance to overtake their starters are being drafted way ahead of my projections which makes sense because the projections in most cases assume a low chance of injury. These handcuff picks are usually occurring in the late rounds with the drafter hoping to strike gold. Secondly, it’s evident that people are drafting 2nd and 3rd string QBs much later because once people get their starter they don’t feel the need to back him up right away. Thirdly, and surprisingly, there were more WRs being overvalued than I expected; I don’t think some people are realizing how deep WR is this year. We also need to take into consideration that players ranked between 200-250 might only be projected 12 points apart which in the grand scheme of things is not a lot so the bigger gaps for lower ranked players are not surprising. Anyone else worthy of specific note is listed in the comments column.

FSF Rank Yahoo ADP Difference Position Player Comments
446 118.6 327.4 RB Willis McGahee Either this is skewed by people drafting before he was cut, or loads of people think teams are going to be highly interested in a 31 (will be 32 mid-season) year old back. Pass.
420 100.5 319.5 WR Jeremy Maclin This is obviously due to people drafting before his season ending injury.
413 111.2 301.8 WR Michael Crabtree This one is crazy to me, people have to know he’s likely injured for the entire regular season; there’s no reason to be burning a pick on a guy who has a &lt5% chance of even playing a snap during the fantasy season. San Francisco is gearing up for the post season, not week 16 and 17.
289 32.5 256.5 WR Percy Harvin This is obviously due to people drafting him before the hip injury.
358 121.8 236.2 QB EJ Manuel He’s looking more and more like he could get the starting job to start the year. This is what I said the Bills should do in my EJ Manuel post. People are riding the high of recent rookie QB success stories, so I get it. If more news comes out indicating Manuel will be the starter then I will adjust the projections and this will likely fall in line.
260 63.8 196.2 TE Dennis Pitta This is obviously due to people drafting before his season ending injury.
310 125 185 RB Isaiah Pead
279 123.4 155.6 WR A.J. Jenkins People seem to be expecting a lot from second year first round draft pick Jenkins. He played in 3 games last year and had all of 1 target which when you consider all the WR depth this year and the fact that this is standard league scoring makes this a strange reach. There’s upside here, but I would bet on Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin being Kaepernick’s 2 primary targets.
276 123.3 152.7 RB Ben Tate
274 121.4 152.6 RB Bryce Brown
278 126.9 151.1 RB Zac Stacy
257 128 129 WR Aaron Dobson I’ve said it before, Belichick has failed miserably drafting WRs. However, I’m starting to buy into Dobson more and more. I’d like to give it some time before I fully buy in to him being a viable fantasy receiver, but the upside could be worth it. I prefer Dobson over A.J. Jenkins.
236 125 111 RB Ronnie Hillman
230 125.3 104.7 WR Mohamed Sanu Too many weapons in Cincinnati for Sanu to stand out. I guess people are falling in love with his TDs last year. Cinci added Tyler Eifert who they will instantly want to get into the mix. I see very little upside here.
215 117.3 97.7 QB Ryan Tannehill I’m not as in love with the upside of Tannehill this year as some are. Sure, they added Mike Wallace, but if Tannehill doesn’t make some big steps forward it doesn’t matter who’s catching the ball.
211 118.7 92.3 QB Alex Smith Do people really think KC’s offense is more potent than SF’s was last year? Alex Smith is a supreme game manager, but there’s no upside here.
213 122.1 90.9 RB Knowshon Moreno
219 133.7 85.3 QB Carson Palmer Maybe I’m being too harsh on Palmer. He has better receivers last year, but he also gained so many yards in garbage 4th quarter losses last year that I have a hard time expecting him to repeat it. There’s definite upside though if he can click with Fitzgerald and the rest of the receivers in Arizona.
203 123.9 79.1 RB Danny Woodhead
132 58.7 73.3 RB Lamar Miller
200 129 71 WR Golden Tate
181 110.5 70.5 RB Shane Vereen
194 124.6 69.4 RB Johnathan Franklin
193 123.9 69.1 WR Danny Woodhead
191 123.8 67.2 RB Michael Bush
192 125.1 66.9 WR Cordarrelle Patterson Rookie WR with some upside. Minnesota’s passing attack rivals the Jets for awfulness so the ceiling is limited, but I can’t fault the pick either.
183 116.9 66.1 QB Michael Vick Vick might not even maintain his starting job and he’s going 17 picks ahead of Carson Palmer. I might have Vick projected higher but that’s assuming he keeps the job all year. I’ll pass on Vick given the risk.
189 122.9 66.1 WR Jacoby Jones Jones has had so many chances to be a viable WR2 option and has failed every step of the way. I’ll eat my words if Jones breaks out this year, but I don’t see it.
185 122.8 62.2 RB Jacquizz Rodgers
190 128.1 61.9 QB Jay Cutler
173 120.3 52.7 RB Shonn Greene
108 57.3 50.7 RB DeMarco Murray
176 125.9 50.1 WR Greg Little I much prefer Josh Gordon over Greg Little and he’s only going 12 picks earlier.
170 121.1 48.9 RB DeAngelo Williams
156 107.2 48.8 QB Ben Roethlisberger
155 109.7 45.3 WR Kenny Britt I like the possible upside here. He was a stud for 3 games before blowing out his knee in 2011.
151 106.1 44.9 RB Vick Ballard
157 114.9 42.1 RB Andre Brown
169 127.1 41.9 WR Ryan Broyles When you’re this far into the 100s, the difference really isn’t that big. Broyles has a chance to break out if Burleson gets hurt again.
160 118.7 41.3 RB Mark Ingram
175 134.5 40.5 WR Alshon Jeffery Same as Ryan Broyles but with less upside. It explains why he’s going 7 picks later than Broyles.
83 43.3 39.7 WR Reggie Wayne Wow, what are people thinking? Wayne no longer gets into the end zone consistently and he’s yet another year older. If this were PPR then maybe, but 40 picks ahead of my projection is a major difference when you’re talking 43 and 83 vs 120 and 160.
136 97.4 38.6 RB Chris Ivory
154 115.4 38.6 QB Joe Flacco
159 120.6 38.4 RB Fred Jackson
99 65.1 33.9 WR Pierre Garcon This is a pretty big reach too. Not as big as Wayne, but Garcon has had injury problems and RG3 showed no problem distributing the ball around to different receivers. 65 is too early for me in standard formats, especially when you consider the depth at WR this year.
158 124.8 33.2 RB Bernard Pierce
168 134.9 33.1 WR Vincent Brown
56 23.5 32.5 WR Larry Fitzgerald This one blows my mind. I guess people see the name and get crazy. He’s going early round 3 when I’m projecting him mid round 6. I get that Palmer can actually deliver the ball but taking him at 23 assumes you’re expecting he’s back up to being a 90-1400-10 guy. INSANE!
166 133.6 32.4 WR Brian Hartline
73 41.2 31.8 QB Russell Wilson I’m hoping this is due to people drafting Wilson before Harvin went with the hip injury.
48 19.2 28.8 RB Steven Jackson Steven Jackson is 30 going on 300. I know he’s on a potent offense so his TDs might actually go up for once, but he’s an injury risk and has Jacquizz Rodgers there to steal his usually plentiful receptions. I don’t see the upside that many are seeing, there’s no chance I will end up with Jackson on any of my rosters.
85 56.2 28.8 WR Antonio Brown People are expecting too much out of Antonio Brown. They went into last year expecting a lot and didn’t get it. Wallace is out of town so the expectation is high again, but I’m not in love with Pittsburgh’s offense at all this year.
153 124.4 28.6 WR Santana Moss
96 67.6 28.4 RB Reggie Bush A crowded backfield has me afraid of Reggie.
88 61.3 26.7 RB Darren McFadden The upside is why people are reaching early for McFadden. It’s not a bad risk if you’re out of other options.
80 54.3 25.7 WR Eric Decker Why??? Denver’s passing attack is loaded and Decker is the third wheel.
71 45.9 25.1 WR Hakeem Nicks Cruz is the #1 option in NY and I don’t see Nicks ever being healthy enough to match this draft position.
142 117.2 24.8 RB Jonathan Stewart
150 125.5 24.5 TE Zach Ertz A rare TE being overvalued, although this is so late in the draft that it’s obvious people are hoping for the rookie’s upside so I have no problem with the pick.
110 86.3 23.7 WR DeSean Jackson
147 124.8 22.2 WR Emmanuel Sanders
145 123.5 21.5 RB Pierre Thomas
66 45 21 WR Wes Welker
109 88.4 20.6 WR Greg Jennings
47 27.1 19.9 WR Roddy White People really aren’t grasping the depth there is at WR this year. They’re also crazy for taking Larry Fitzgerald ahead of Roddy White.
50 31.1 18.9 WR Andre Johnson AJ has to fall off form last year’s production. It seems people are taking this somewhat into account by only drafting him on average at 31, but that’s still too early.
87 68.5 18.5 WR James Jones Jones has the least upside of all the Packers WRs and if he just loses a few of those TDs he got last year then he’s very ho-hum.
95 77.2 17.8 RB Montee Ball
43 25.3 17.7 QB Peyton Manning People are expecting way too much out of the Denver offense. I can foresee some big games to start the year from Peyton as the defense deals with the probable loss of Von Miller for 4 games, but look to last year’s 11 game winning streak as evidence; Peyton’s production was steady and solid, but John Fox clearly preferred to run the football with the lead instead of blow teams out which limits Peyton’s upside.
135 117.9 17.1 WR Sidney Rice
70 53.5 16.5 WR Mike Wallace Wallace was the #1 option in Pittsburgh and wasn’t a stud. Now he has an inexperienced QB throwing the ball to him so I don’t see the upside here.
58 41.7 16.3 WR Dwayne Bowe People are expecting too much out of Alex Smith. He’s a game manager not a game changer.
77 61 16 WR Steve Smith You’re not going to get 2011 Steve Smith. You’re probably going to get 2012 Steve Smith. He’s old though so he could even drop off a little more.
46 31 15 RB Chris Johnson With the risk of Shonn Greene, people are reaching too early for Johnson.
144 129.7 14.3 WR Santonio Holmes
128 114.1 13.9 RB Giovani Bernard
140 127.6 12.4 QB Philip Rivers
130 119.7 10.3 TE Zach Miller
111 102.2 8.8 WR Anquan Boldin
31 22.3 8.7 WR Demaryius Thomas Denver is not going to throw the ball for 5000 yards and 40 TDs like New Orleans, their defense is too good. Thomas has to decline some.
139 130.6 8.4 WR Brandon LaFell
29 21 8 RB Matt Forte
104 96.5 7.5 WR Miles Austin
17 9.6 7.4 RB LeSean McCoy I know RB is the coveted position, but I don’t think McCoy can get into the end zone like he did in 2011.
13 5.6 7.4 RB Jamaal Charles Charles is a beast, I totally get that, but in standard leagues his receptions don’t have as much value. He’s never been much of a red zone threat, but maybe that changes under Andy Reid. Sprinkle in a few extra TDs and this ADP could prove worthy.
18 11.5 6.5 RB Alfred Morris
138 131.7 6.3 WR Kendall Wright
22 16.9 5.1 WR Brandon Marshall
10 6.5 3.5 RB Marshawn Lynch
41 37.7 3.3 WR Jordy Nelson
16 13.5 2.5 RB Trent Richardson
32 29.8 2.2 WR Randall Cobb
131 128.8 2.2 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
39 38.2 0.8 WR Marques Colston
19 18.5 0.5 WR Julio Jones

Hip Surgery for Harvin

Harvin will have hip surgery this Thursday and there’s no timetable for his return. At this point, I would avoid him in all leagues on draft day. He’s going to miss significant time, he’s injury prone enough as it is without the addition of the hip injury, and even if he does come back this year it will be incredibly late in the fantasy season and he will be a major question mark not worth starting until he gets a couple starts under his belt to prove he’s fine. Injuries and bye weeks happen throughout the season and having a bench slot rotting away on a player who might not even play this year isn’t something you’ll see me doing on the off chance I get a couple of starts from Harvin late in the year.